This will be a key test for the euro as previous attempts in the past two weeks failed to really breach the 100-hour moving average (red line). That is seen at 1.0941 currently.
The euro is managing to stave off a decline below 1.0800 against the dollar for now, finding some technical support at least. But given the Russia-Ukraine war, it is tough to really imagine a meaningful bounce until things are sorted out.
A push above the 100-hour moving average of 1.0941 would be encouraging for buyers but offers around 1.1000 may limit gains for now.
It is all about headline risks for the euro and that also includes what to expect from the ECB tomorrow.
The central bank is put in a tough situation with inflation surging in the euro area and surely they would not want a problem of a falling currency to compound their woes.
As such, be wary of potential ECB jawboning and if not, the euro could still find itself in trouble as long as Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to flare up in the coming days/weeks.
