At the start of the US session, the EURUSD was heading lower and toward target support at the broken 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 10 high and the rising 100 hour MA (blue line). Those levels come in at 1.10684 and 1.10599 respectively.
The low price reached 1.10674 just below the 38.2% and the price bounced (the low was also near a swing corrective low from Tuesday as well).
The subsequent move higher reached up to 1.1132. That high stalled ahead of the low of a swing area (see red numbered circles) and the 50% midpoint (see earlier post). The price moved above that area yesterday, but failed on the extension higher today which led to the move lower on the disappointment.
What now?
Although the support did hold, the sellers seemed to line up ahead of the low of the higher swing area (and well below the 50% midpoint). As a result, sellers have the short term edge.
The pair has move back lower, trading at 1.1091 as I type. There remains the aforementioned support at the 38.2% and the rising 100 hour MA that admittedly still needs to be broken. Below that the 200 hour MA at 1.10342 is another downside target. Move below each would shift more of the bias in the favor of the sellers once again, and give more support to the failed break above the midpoint level.
