Chicago Fed president Charlie Evans is speaking and says:
- High prices will persist longer than I thought
- However high prices are not persistent
- The Fed has to reposition itself in response
- By the end of the year will know a lot more about how persistent inflation is
- Hopefully inflation will be receding
- Supply pressures are more intense than expected
- At the end of the year will be able to make choices about more or less restrictiveness
- We need to position monetary policy much closer to neutral.
- The US economy has momentum
- neutral setting for monetary policy is 2.25% to 2.50%
- Had tough would be at neutral by March 2023; If got there by December, that would be ok too
- Not going too far, to quickly is important for optionality
- 50BP hike is worthy of consideration, possibly highly likely
- The real discussion is how are you want rates to be positioned by the end of the year
- I don't at the moment expect to see the need for restrictive policy to reign in inflation, but there is a risk
Most Fed officials are happy to stay behind the curve. They know rates need to be back at neutral. They know inflation is running well above the neutral rate, but the remain tied to the meetings and steady rises.