Both the US and China claim to have won the trade war. Actually, they both lost, but there were winners, sort of...

June 3, 2018: Trade Talks With China End in Impasse and Threats from China

All sides lose in a trade war. One does not win a trade war by losing less. Trump is clueless about trade and barking up the wrong tree.

Exacerbate the Next Recession

I wish to emphasize my March 2, 2018 prediction.

"Trump's trade policies are set to exacerbate the next global recession, but economic illiterates are egging him on."

All of these tariffs, sanctions and supply chain disruptions, now expanded by Biden as well, have certainly exacerbated the inflationary pressures in this global recession. 

The economic illiterates in the Biden administration have doubled, if not quadrupled down on Trump sanction ideas. 

De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

Flashback April 4, 2022: De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

"Piped gas from Russia can be supplied to northern China at prices that are competitive when compared with LNG," said Ken Kiat Lee, analyst at consultancy FGE.

And as Russian oil gets diverted to China, China will then buy less oil from the Middle East and then Middle Eastern oil will now have to be shipped to Europe with the same loss of efficiency as the shipment of Baltic oil to China.

If this sounds convoluted, it's because it is. 

US Sanction Policy Drives China Into Russia's Loving Arms

As a result of US and EU sanctions on Russia, the price of Natural Gas has exploded, especially in Europe. 

The price of oil is up everywhere, even as recession hits. 

With all this going on, it's debatable if anyone was a winner. But on a relative scale, Vietnam won. 

The biggest losers of de-globalization are the US, India, food and energy importers, and any countries hurt by the surging US dollar.

No, president Trump, trade wars are not good, nor easy to win. 

Here is one final flashback.

March 8, 2022: US Sanction Policy Drives China Into Russia's Loving Arms

The global response to Russia has one huge beneficiary, China. The war accelerates a trend in place set in motion by Trump.

A recession fueled by collapsing demand, a liquidity crunch, and fading stimulus effects is coming up. Inflation sure doesn't help.

Russia will not be the "cause" but the war in Ukraine and the global reaction to it will make things dramatically worse.

Hello president Biden, your sanctions on Russia have backfired just like Trump's tariffs and sanctions on China.