COT Week 28 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Bets Drop Lower Led By Corn, Coffee & Soybeans
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes
COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower net speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (22,357 contracts) and Lean Hogs (9,852 contracts) with Soybean Meal (4,453 contracts), Cocoa (2,935 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,870 contracts) also showing increasing net positions on the week.
The markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-13,549 contracts) and Coffee (-12,479 contracts) with Soybeans (-10,372 contracts), Cotton (-7,860 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,893 contracts) and Wheat (-3,745 contracts) also seeing lower speculator net positions on the week.
The latest data for the soft commodities markets (especially strength trends further below) shows how much the softs sentiment has cooled off after a super-hot start to the year.
Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
| WTI Crude | 1,612,803 | 0 | 268,328 | 0 | -294,526 | 100 | 26,198 | 52 |
| Corn | 1,333,199 | 0 | 247,156 | 62 | -196,533 | 44 | -50,623 | 14 |
| Natural Gas | 969,204 | 0 | -131,603 | 39 | 94,195 | 61 | 37,408 | 69 |
| Sugar | 701,144 | 0 | 105,869 | 58 | -115,779 | 46 | 9,910 | 20 |
| Soybeans | 611,751 | 1 | 115,119 | 49 | -87,284 | 57 | -27,835 | 24 |
| Gold | 542,493 | 26 | 118,121 | 0 | -137,788 | 100 | 19,667 | 0 |
| Wheat | 288,182 | 0 | 4,639 | 25 | 5,041 | 67 | -9,680 | 60 |
| Heating Oil | 266,330 | 22 | 6,728 | 52 | -22,853 | 47 | 16,125 | 54 |
| Coffee | 195,810 | 2 | 34,308 | 68 | -35,166 | 37 | 858 | 0 |
| Copper | 172,037 | 6 | -26,295 | 23 | 27,061 | 78 | -766 | 21 |
| Brent | 171,950 | 17 | -38,388 | 47 | 36,619 | 54 | 1,769 | 33 |
| Silver | 142,259 | 9 | 3,204 | 0 | -9,612 | 100 | 6,408 | 0 |
| Platinum | 75,615 | 48 | -5,911 | 0 | 1,235 | 100 | 4,676 | 27 |
| Palladium | 6,474 | 1 | -2,802 | 7 | 3,252 | 93 | -450 | 18 |
Strength Scores
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (83.4 percent) positions lead the strength scores in the soft commodity markets and are currently in a bullish extreme position. Coffee (68.5 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity market in strength scores followed by Corn (61.6 percent) and Sugar (58.4 percent). On the downside, Live Cattle (6.8 percent) and Cocoa (13.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish levels.
Strength Statistics:
Corn (61.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.3 percent)
Sugar (58.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (53.8 percent)
Coffee (68.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (79.3 percent)
Soybeans (49.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (83.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (80.9 percent)
Live Cattle (6.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.3 percent)
Cotton (49.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (54.8 percent)
Cocoa (13.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (10.7 percent)
Wheat (25.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.0 percent)
Strength Trends
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Lean Hogs (17.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Meal (10.9 percent) and Live Cattle (3.0 percent) round out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Soybean Oil (-30.2 percent) and Wheat (-23.0 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-21.6 percent) and Corn (-20.1 percent) followed by Sugar (-19.7 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-21.4 percent)
vs Sugar previous week (-25.9 percent)
Coffee (-7.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (-21.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-19.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-30.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.8 percent)
Live Cattle (3.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.6 percent)
Cotton (-17.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.0 percent)
Cocoa (-14.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-15.4 percent)
Wheat (-23.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.4 percent)
Individual Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 247,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 260,705 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.8 | 46.8 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.3 | 61.6 | 13.1 |
| – Net Position: | 247,156 | -196,533 | -50,623 |
| – Gross Longs: | 384,324 | 624,590 | 123,773 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 137,168 | 821,123 | 174,396 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.6 | 43.9 | 13.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.1 | 22.3 | 0.1 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,512 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.9 | 50.5 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 67.0 | 7.6 |
| – Net Position: | 105,869 | -115,779 | 9,910 |
| – Gross Longs: | 188,691 | 354,173 | 62,937 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 82,822 | 469,952 | 53,027 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 58.4 | 46.2 | 20.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -19.7 | 23.7 | -36.0 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,787 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.0 | 52.7 | 4.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.5 | 70.6 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 34,308 | -35,166 | 858 |
| – Gross Longs: | 49,003 | 103,113 | 8,550 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,695 | 138,279 | 7,692 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.5 | 37.3 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.5 | 9.6 | -18.6 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,491 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.1 | 51.3 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.2 | 65.6 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | 115,119 | -87,284 | -27,835 |
| – Gross Longs: | 171,610 | 313,986 | 38,675 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 56,491 | 401,270 | 66,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.2 | 57.5 | 24.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -21.6 | 21.3 | -0.9 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,681 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.9 | 59.3 | 6.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.8 | 68.0 | 6.3 |
| – Net Position: | 29,788 | -32,200 | 2,412 |
| – Gross Longs: | 69,825 | 219,399 | 25,642 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 40,037 | 251,599 | 23,230 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.8 | 76.3 | 22.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -30.2 | 36.0 | -55.3 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 100,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,944 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.9 | 43.0 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 2.6 | 73.2 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | 100,397 | -119,787 | 19,390 |
| – Gross Longs: | 110,774 | 170,710 | 41,383 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,377 | 290,497 | 21,993 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 10.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.4 | 20.7 | 34.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.9 | -5.4 | -47.0 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,029 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.3 | 41.1 | 11.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.2 | 49.5 | 11.3 |
| – Net Position: | 21,899 | -22,536 | 637 |
| – Gross Longs: | 92,671 | 111,204 | 31,321 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 70,772 | 133,740 | 30,684 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.8 | 82.5 | 84.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.0 | -5.4 | 5.6 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,207 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.1 | 39.6 | 9.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.2 | 48.2 | 14.1 |
| – Net Position: | 25,059 | -16,735 | -8,324 |
| – Gross Longs: | 66,221 | 76,851 | 19,114 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 41,162 | 93,586 | 27,438 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 34.0 | 73.7 | 53.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.3 | -17.2 | -6.8 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,545 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.3 | 43.5 | 6.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.1 | 69.5 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | 42,685 | -45,740 | 3,055 |
| – Gross Longs: | 67,517 | 76,796 | 11,861 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,832 | 122,536 | 8,806 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.8 | 51.3 | 31.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.9 | 20.6 | -45.2 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,115 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.6 | 46.2 | 4.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.9 | 45.5 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | -4,180 | 2,102 | 2,078 |
| – Gross Longs: | 90,985 | 141,970 | 14,013 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 95,165 | 139,868 | 11,935 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.5 | 87.9 | 17.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.0 | 16.0 | -21.0 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,384 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.2 | 42.5 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.6 | 40.7 | 12.9 |
| – Net Position: | 4,639 | 5,041 | -9,680 |
| – Gross Longs: | 84,206 | 122,406 | 27,418 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 79,567 | 117,365 | 37,098 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.1 | 66.8 | 60.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.0 | 33.7 | -31.2 |
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
More By This Author:
COT Week 27 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators Bets Go Lower Led By Corn, Sugar & Cocoa
COT Week 27 Charts: Bond Market Speculators Bets Higher Overall Led By Ultra US Bonds & 2-Year Bonds
COT Week 27 Charts: Energy Speculator Bets Drop Led By WTI Crude Oil & Gasoline
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