Grains Report - Wednesday, July 20

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little lower on ideas of new demand as Egypt stopped a tender for more Wheat. However, Egypt said it would negotiate directly with sellers instead of via tender and US prices are thought to be competitive. Some selling was tied to news that Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine are closer to agreement to allow exports from Ukraine via the Black Sea, but many in the trade doubt that much can happen as Russia keeps bombing people and infrastructure in Ukraine. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets and are still mixed in Minneapolis. Demand remains poor for US Wheat despite very strong sales last week. The export sales report last week showed the strongest volume of sales in years. The Winter Wheat harvest is now more than 70% complete through the Great Plains and Midwest. Hot and dry weather is back for this week in central and southern areas. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies weather has been improved with showers and storms but is still variable. Europe is too hot and dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 785, 766, and 760 September, with resistance at 825, 854, and 914 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 854, 820, and 801 September, with resistance at 890, 908, and 948 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 916, 892, and 871 September, and resistance is at 952, 999, and 1044 September.

variety of assorted-color beans

Image Source: Unsplash

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday as the US Dollar was lower again and petroleum markets rallied. News that Iraq had bought 40,000 tons of US Rice supported the market and could add additional support today if there are ideas around that more purchases are coming in the near term. It remains very hot and dry in Texas and the other growing areas are likely to see hot and dry conditions over the next couple of weeks. Crop conditions are mostly good to excellent for now in Arkansas, but the weather could turn hot and dry and hat could hurt overall production potential. Mississippi and Louisiana are called in good condition. Texas Rice is developing in what are called stressful conditions. Water availability from the lakes will be very limited this year and maybe next year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1751 and 1842 September. Support is at 1696, 1692, and 1681 September and resistance is at 1730, 1754, and 1758 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on the weather forecasts that moderated overnight on temperatures and introduced the possibility of some rain to the Midwest and despite news that the US Dollar moved lower again. Some selling was seen and was tied to worries about the world economic health and Corn demand moving forward. Corn is a weather market again as hot and dry forecasts were moderated as forecast high temperatures are now a little cooler and there is some potential for some showers this weekend. Crude Oil was higher and ethanol demand could get an increase. Traders have heard about hot and dry forecasts for the western Midwest and Great Plains in recent days, but many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and the Corn in these areas should be able to withstand some heat and dry weather. And now the weather might not be that stressful. Basis levels in the Midwest are strong amid light farm selling and good demand.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 596, 585, and 582 September, and resistance is at 624, 634, and 645 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 470, 452, and 436 September, and resistance is at 497, 501, and 509 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products were lower yesterday on improved weather forecasts and despite the fact that the US Dollar was lower and as Crude Oil rallied. Traders heard about hot and dry forecasts for the western Midwest and Great Plains recently but many Midwest areas got rain in the last week or two and could be in line for more showers this weekend. Basis levels are still strong in the Midwest. The US cash market is still running low on Soybeans but there are still renewed Chinese lockdowns and China has been importing less as a result. There is less Chinese demand for Soy products due to the lockdowns there and China is starting to renew the lockdowns now as Covid cases have risen in number. The lockdowns are now for one week instead of one month. Ideas are that purchases could increase as the lockdowns and port closures are finally eased by the government there. China has been a major buyer of US Soybeans this year after a very slow start due to the problems in South America. They have been buying for this year and already have booked a large amount of new crop Soybeans to cover future needs.
Overnight News: China bought 136,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1490, 1456, and 1445 August, and resistance is at 1516, 1553, and 1573 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 428.00, 422.00, and 420.00 July, and resistance is at 440.00 442.00, and 448.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6010, 5760, and 5670 August, with resistance at 6470, 6500, and 6570 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with the Chicago markets. Malaysia and Indonesia are making moves to expand demand in the face of increasing supply. Refiners in Malaysia have pledged to lower the price of cooking oil for internal consumption in an effort to help control inflation. Indonesia is offering incentives to move the product into domestic and export channels. Export reports from the private sources are showing the weaker demand this month and this has been the trend for the last few months. Production from Malaysia is expected to increase as well as the Covid lockdowns finally go away and as the weather is good for production. Canola was lower along with Soybean Oil and on a stronger Canadian Dollar. The growing conditions are much improved with rans being reported in recent days.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 828.00, 810.00, and 791.00 November, with resistance at 861.00, 877.00, and 879.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3780, 3520, and 3470 October, with resistance at 4080, 4120, and 4340 October.


More By This Author:

Softs Report - Monday, July, 18
Grains Report - Friday, July 15
Softs Report - Thursday, July 14

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