Kit Juckes, Macro Strategist at Société Générale, explains why EUR/JPY is a better short than EUR/USD.
Key Quotes:
“Nordstream 1 flows are expected to halve to 20% of capacity, down from the 40% they were at yesterday. Economists are scrambling to update estimates of the economic impact, but two things are clear, one bad and one slightly more encouraging. The first is that growth is going to be substantially slower than expected. The second is that the response has been significant in terms of building capacity to import LNG from the US, reduce demand, and find other sources of energy (Germany is even talking about restarting nuclear power plants).”
“When asked in early June where the euro could fall to if gas flows to the Eurozone were stopped, we estimated that a fall to 0.9-0.95 was feasible. The amount of work that has already been done to help soften the economic blow makes that look a little too pessimistic, even if a period in a 0.90-0.95 range still seems likely over the next month or two.”
“Given positioning (very long USD, and short the European currency bloc), I don't think EUR/USD shorts are that attractive right now. The market fully expects a 75bp hike from the FOMC this evening, and the market's torn 50/50 as to whether we get 50bp or 75bp in September. It isn't obvious that the FOMC meeting should have a major impact on risk sentiment or provide much support for the dollar. So, EUR bears would still do better to look at EUR/JPY, which has only risen in 6 of the 22 Augusts since 1999.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD steady below 1.0800 after US PCE meets expectations
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair barely reacted to US PCE inflation data, with the Greenback shedding some pips. Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak ahead of the weekly close.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2620 in dull trading
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a widespread holiday restraining action across financial markets. Investors took a long weekend ahead of critical United States employment data next week. Fed Chair Powell coming up next.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230
Gold price holds near a fresh all-time high at $2,236 in thinned trading amid the Easter Holiday. Most major world markets remain closed, although the United States published core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.